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RG03.1 obama & hillary, part two

January 14th, 2008 by dk

I’ve been paying attention to the analysis of the New Hampshire primary, but I haven’t seen anyone connect Obama’s surprise fall with McCain’s surprise lift. McCain’s race was supposed to be tight. Obama was supposed to win going away. Both were counting on Independent voters. One poll predicted 70% of them would vote in the Democratic primary, since they could choose either one. But barely 50% did. The other half decided, apparently at the last minute, to throw their weight behind McCain by voting Republican instead. The turnout still broke records, but not as heavily for the DEmocrats as in Iowa. Couldn’t it be as simple as this? Independents want to help Obama and McCain. If they have a choice between helping one or the other, they will go where they feel most needed — especially the women! I believe this explanation is overlooked because analysts analyze one race or the other — not how the two are connected. And a related note: Republicans have two extra reasons to fear Obama as their eventual opponent. First, his talk about unity lessens the chance of Michael Bloomberg from entering the race. But more directly, Republican fundraisers were counting Hillary’s image (and the memory of Bill’s scandals) to build their war chests.

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